I think it's the most reasonable reading of the guidance, but I would agree that it would be vastly superior if this (or some other treatment) was made quite explicit. Guidance should do a better job of guiding.
How do you square your interpretation with the text at the top of page 5?
It appears to be saying in situation 1 you have no N-coins at all. By exclusion, situation 2 would apply if you have the new coins and it clearly states taxes are owned on the market value in that case.
Not sure I understand your confusion. If you don't receive the forked coins (situation 1) you don't have income. It doesn't matter why you didn't get any of the forked coins.
It appears to be saying in situation 1 you have no N-coins at all. By exclusion, situation 2 would apply if you have the new coins and it clearly states taxes are owned on the market value in that case.