[SpicyLemonZest]

I'm not sure what "speculation" is meant to imply here. Deutsche is explicitly giving a speculative valuation here; they speculate that Google Cloud will reach $38 billion of revenue in 2025. But that's not some pie-in-the-sky impossible dream; AWS brought $25B (and operating income of $7B) last year.

There are two direct responses to your last question: all parts of running a server farm are hard, and a cloud platform is more than just a glorified server farm.

[wolco]

The valuation doesn't add up. At 38B revenue we can assume 12B operating income so 20x profit. But your telling us today it is worth 225B not in 2025?

[SpicyLemonZest]

I can't find a copy of the analysis (it's unclear to me whether it's even public). But presumably Deutsche either thinks 38B is an an almost sure thing, or expects the business to grow even more after 2025.