[dieterrams2]

If you play poker, you know that, for any given hand, you can make the right play but still lose. But you’ll come out net positive by repeatedly making the right play.

You don’t get to play as many hands in your career as you do in a session of poker, so if you’re optimizing for income, generally speaking you should go for a job that gives you the highest guaranteed income rather than work for startups with, say, 1% odds of netting you significantly more than you would get at FAANG, for example.

[Judgmentality]

I agree with you - you're optimizing for the most likely scenario. My point is even if you play your cards right, you still might lose. In other words, it's better to be lucky than good.

[esmi]

OTOH, if you’re bad, it’s much more unlikely luck can save you.