[microtherion]

… and not entirely unreasonably so, given that Elon Musk teased that number as late as last week: “We have a shot at achieving our first 100,000 vehicle delivery quarter,”

https://www.sbsun.com/2019/09/26/business-briefly-tesla-surg...

[Robotbeat]

It is unreasonable. "Have a shot" implies it's unlikely to occur.

[FireBeyond]

I don't think it implies that at all. To me, having a shot means that it's entirely in the realm of probability.

"He breaks clear of the defender and has a shot at goal" doesn't imply "it's unlikely to happen", but there's a notable chance of it.