[wurst_case]

Learning how to reliably control the damn thing on descent is certainly their greatest hurdle. Refueling in orbit being the second biggest. I expect things to go boom at least a few times before they learn to land properly. Saying people Wil go to orbit within a year is most likely not to happen.

[zaroth]

Elon said they learned a lot of what they need for orbital refueling just from docking with the ISS.