[SlowRobotAhead]

>While we're on the subject of skepticism and 'baloney detection' whenever somebody says X will happen in Y years there's usually a bit of baloney in there.

Agreed.

One of the most popular New Year’s Day posts here was a popular tech personality with his 2019 predications that definitely had Trump removed from office.

I look forward to bringing that up next New Years, not because I’m a Trump fan, but because if all these Ms Cleo fortune tellers are so smart I wonder why they waste time with blogging.

[quacked]

Was it the one where he also assigns a probability rate to his prediction? i.e. "Trump will be removed from the presidency - 90%", and then at the end of the year he calculates all his predictions (which are True/False by nature) and weighs them based on how certain he was to determine a marker of how accurate he is.

[SlowRobotAhead]

Yes! That’s the one I think. Thanks, that’ll help me find it next year for the thread that will invariably have the same predictions :)

[quacked]

https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/01/25/predictions-for-2019/

I think he actually predicted that Trump would remain the president, but I've always found the predictions post as strange. It seems like he's making a bunch of safe bets and scoring them safely, and then declaring himself accurate as a result. "What everything thinks is most likely is probably most likely, so you should listen to what I have to say" would be the takeaway, which isn't that interesting.