[rorymarinich]

Tumblr's become a youth phenomenon. In high schools and colleges it's everywhere.

Posterous is prolific, but it's not omnipresent. And I doubt it will ever become omnipresent, because it doesn't offer enough to differentiate itself from Tumblr and because it's nowhere near sexy enough to capture the vast audience that only cares about things being sexy.

[swombat]

I'm not arguing that Tumblr isn't successful or that Tumblr doesn't have more traffic (that would be a stupid argument!). What I am arguing against is this suggestion that somehow Posterous has "lost" and it's time for them to throw in the towel or something. Posterous is a fairly young service that's seen great growth and is, as far as I can tell, going places, and fast.

The suggestion that Garry Tan is leaving because Posterous isn't working out is unsubstantiated, and that's what I'm arguing about. This is like pointing at Facebook when they were much smaller than MySpace, showing that such-and-such person just left, and saying it's because Facebook has lost the battle. It hasn't. The battle is still raging, and who will win is definitely up for grabs.

[rorymarinich]

That makes sense. Cheers!