[TickMark]

Good article. I thought about this problem quite a bit. I've been on both sides of the question.

I thought I was brilliant when I came up with the solution of fixing the time frame and estimating the work that can be done in that time frame. Turns out I came up with sprints, 60 years after they were invented.

The fun solution for this would be to give 'hit dice' estimates for tasks. Assign type of dice and number of them to each eastimated.

How long will this take?

About 1d20 days.

Nobody will be happy with this, but it is the most realistic one. Cause tasks do have that variability to them.

The wises thing said here is: "the reality is that if you can make a probabilistically accurate estimate, then it's likely that the task should have been automated by some other means already. "

Is there an answer to this problem? Maybe abandon long term estimates entirely. Having really short term estimates, with frequent updates.