[pmchiu]

I disagree with Fred Wilson that a multiple of 25-50 EBITDA is not unreasonable. I think it's completely unreasonable at this point. Let's for a moment consider what a 25 or 50X EBITDA multiple means. In the long term that would imply that Facebook's revenue is 25BN or 50BN (assuming 1BN of revenue now). Apple's revenue right now is 60BN annually and Google's is a little more than 25BN. Either of these is fair if you assume that Facebook has a monetization plan that is at a minimum as good as Google search and at best as lucrative as consumer products (ala iPhone, iPad, iPod). Right now there isn't anything to indicate it's either of those.

So a multiple of 25 or 50x EBITDA is done on faith that Facebook is smart enough to figure it out. Frankly before I'd invest I'd like to see some proof of that. Right now all I see are display ad's and that isn't enough.