[salex89]

This is a fresh, possibly more substantiated article: https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/22/blast-from-the-past-vel...

The interesting fact is that there is very little speak of any other nation carrying out a nuclear test. It boiled down to Israel and South Africa, or a sensor glitch/weather fenomena. Kind of fun that the two nations vere the prime suspects although officially "nothing happened".

[EdwardDiego]

Also that the 'glitch' happened to occur in very close proximity to two uninhabited* subantarctic islands controlled by South Africa - and that sheep in Western Australia showed higher levels of iodine 131.

*Permanently uninhabited, but there's a research base there.

[fleetingmoments]

I spent a year on that island in 2010/2011. There has never been a time where there weren't research personnel at the station since the 50s. It's very hard to believe a nuclear test would be carried out without concern for the safety of the overwintering team or without anybody noticing.

[Merrill]

A two to three kiloton nuclear explosion approximately 100 miles east of the island would not be noticeable. The prevailing winds blow east, but the nearest islands are another 400 miles away.

[fleetingmoments]

Interesting. Would you pick up anything with a geiger counter on the island?

Prince Edward island is only 12 miles or so from Marion and visible from the base so it certainly did not happen in the waters between them.

[Merrill]

The coordinates of the blast are given as 47°S 40°E, while Prince Edward is at about 38°E. Google maps shows the distance as about 100 miles. Tan(2degrees) x 100 x 5280 gives about 18,400 feet below the horizon at Prince Edward for the elevation of the blast. So any radiation from the blast itself would travel through a lot of shielding water and rock. Possibly the decay of fallout aloft could be detected, but that would only be for gamma radiation at that distance through air. And not many fission products would make it to 18,000 feet from a small bomb.

[EdwardDiego]

> It's very hard to believe a nuclear test would be carried out without concern for the safety of the overwintering team or without anybody noticing.

Atomic tests have routinely been carried out with scientific observers nearby, I mean, it's sorta the point of doing one. And as for people noticing, I would imagine apartheid South Africa had their own equivalent of an Official Secrets Act.

[fleetingmoments]

The team members were Meteorologists and Biologists, not nuclear observers. You can find the team and their names here. http://blogs.sun.ac.za/antarcticlegacy/reference-materials/m...

[EdwardDiego]

I don't disbelieve you, but again - Official Secrets Act. I doubt any of the wintering over scientists had a strong urge to end up on Robben Island for telling someone about the time that they were asked to take a short holiday and not ask too many questions.

Also, the fact that the overwintering teams are all listed as ending their time there in September strongly correlates to the date of the Vela Incident. So entirely plausible to send the winter team home a few days early and delay the the summer team.

[fleetingmoments]

No the schedule is March to April, with one month of takeover. Only the first few teams had different schedules. More plausible is that the blast was too far away and small to be observed from the island.