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by thedudeabides5 2470 days ago
These are good questions and not sure I’ve seen good answers out there yet

The rate spiking is indeed reflective of someone needing collateral quickly and being willing to pay up for it.

Now the fact that it spiked doesn’t mean Armageddon, just check out Chinese interbank stats to get a sense of how much they can move.

That being said looks like a narrative has formed that it must mean reserves are “too low” and so, I guess we should print more.

Another perspective is we had a decent amount of monetary tightening, and tightening are designed to reduce liquidity, especially on the front end.

This is a sign that, that tightening, combined with regulatory pressure on banks to get out of this market, have indeed reduced liquidity.

Now, no one really wants to make levered entities go under because randomly repo liqidity dries up, so the answer is clearly to just print more money.

What’s being missed though is that this illiquidity is not a bug, it’s a lagged feature of monetary policy decisions from 2014-2018.

2 comments

Obligatory - "That's just, like, your opinion, man"

But yep! I agree with you 100% on this being a result of all the monetary policy decisions taken over the last 4 years.

Someone needing liquidity? Yeah, the Treasury needs its debt funded, all the VC's need their IPO's bought, there is just a lot of supply right now. That they converged in the overnight market on one particular day might be a coincidence, but the structural issue is the very large funding needs in the economy at a time when foreign buyers are turned away due to protectionism.