[CriticalCathed]

>1.5 degrees

I was under the impression that there was worldwide consensus that we will pass 1.5 -- that it's too late to realistically prevent that. More, that if you count from the late 19th and early 20th century averages we've already passed 1.5.

[_ph_]

The number isn't that relevant, whether its 1.5 or 2C. What is relevant, that we can limit the temperature raise only if we strongly stop on the breaks with respect to CO2 emissions. If we don't do that, we will have quite different and much more unpleaseant numbers.

[tejohnso]

From what I've read, stomping on the breaks with respect to CO2 emissions would very quickly, and very dramatically increase global average temperature due to reduced aerosol masking.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/201...

[mrpopo]

Even if this was the case, and even if there was no realistic workaround to it (the article you linked mentions aerosol emission mitigation), this will happen at some point. Would you rather this happens now, or when the world has warmed 5 degrees already?

[projct]

a recent paper disputes this: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1554-z explanation on Ars: https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/09/we-can-phase-out-fos...

[jdc]

I wonder if anyone's estimated the relationship between global change in temperature and change in QUALYs.