[tylerpachal]

(serious) Is there any hope? Its just one problem after another (probably because everything is linked).

What are the chances that we will get our act together or be able to engineer ourselves out of all of these problems?

[ip26]

The fact that wetland bird populations are actually growing is a strong sign that we can fix this, if we try.

Bird conservation efforts in the last few decades mainly focused on wetlands. See DDT, national wildlife refuges, and the duck stamp.

So, it's not like the decline is inexorable. But it's not going to fix itself.

[hanniabu]

All those wetlands are filled with water, which we are polluting. Trump removing the Clean Water Act last week also doesn't help the situation. Eventually this water will get contaminated, insects and species will die. There's no doubt in my mind of that if we keep putting money first.

[tzs]

The Trump administration's reinterpretation of the Migratory Bird Treat Act of 1918, which protects migratory birds, also doesn't help.

They interpret it to only prohibit intentionally killing protected birds. So, if you wanted to, say, drain a wetland that migratory birds depended on to build a parking lot, which would wipe out nesting grounds and lead to a lot of bird deaths--that would be fine under the Trump interpretation as long as you aren't building the parking lot to intentionally kill the birds.

This has already started having an effect. The US Fish and Wildlife Service, for instance, no longer stops loggers from cutting down trees with nests of protected birds in them, killing eggs or chicks.

[hanniabu]

Wow, that's unbelievably fucked up....

[tylerpachal]

Cool! I don't know much about bird conservation efforts but it is encouraging that we are having success in some areas.

[dougmwne]

I've been working in environmental advocacy for about 8 years. I'm pretty sure we won't go extinct. I am also pretty sure this era of peace and prosperity is coming to a close. I think new technical solutions are coming, but I don't think they're getting here fast enough to guarantee that every country will get enough food. I recommend your children move to higher latitudes and altitudes.

[deftnerd]

Already ahead of you. Moved my children (all under 10) from Austin, TX to Ithaca, NY (above 42 latitude) based on long-term climate change forecast models and detailed regional models that I ran based on what data I could gather, as well as taking feedback loops into account.

I took regional agricultural production and soil quality, active regional environmentalism, presence of higher education (Cornell), water sources, historical wildfires, and more into account. I'm hopeful that I picked a place that will give my children a less frightening future than the rest of the country, at least for a while longer.

I'm working on buying some land now to start working on some basic agricultural production and building a home designed around "edge case" risks being less edge than normal such as extreme weather, temperature, vermin, and unreliable utilities.

[anigbrowl]

Don't wait on a consensus solution because it's difficult and slow to establish consensus and it's easy for malicious actors to frustrate. Get together with like-minded friends and engage in direct action against environmental criminals that will draw public attention to their malfeasance.

[JackRabbitSlim]

No. John Forbs Nash did the math 40 years ago. Nothing changes until its profitable to change and it will only be profitable to change when its already to late.

[guerrilla]

That's if we leave it to the market. There are other options, such as direct action, collective action and various forms of state intervention.

[PeterStuer]

It is far worse than that. Market capitalism can not move us from local maxima even when we know far higher maxima exist.

[majos]

What? R+D investment is still a real thing, even if investors have shorter time horizons than they used to. There are still firms sacrificing short term gains for long term ones.

[saagarjha]

I wonder if the market can exhibit “profit tunneling” where you can temporarily violate the classical rules as long as you end up “making up for it”.

[mrhappyunhappy]

Chances are slim to none. Once permafrost goes there is no stopping it. It's already starting to go...

[guerrilla]

I have a suggestion for obtaining perspective. If we could find the right kind of biologist, we might ask them to estimate how many other species went extinct by destroying their environment. How common is that? I know it happens with deer and rabbits on islands but what about more generally. I know our situation is different, but I'd still like to know and factor it in to a larger answer.

[pastor_elm]

>What are the chances that we will get our act together or be able to engineer ourselves out of all of these problems?

Engineering is what got us into this problem. Foolish to hope it can get us out.

[throwaway66920]

Rowing the boat got us out this far, it would be foolish to think that rowing the boat could get us back /s

[nabnob]

Thermodynamics doesn’t work like that. There’s no undo button.

[throwaway66920]

Thermodynamics doesn’t in the sense that entropy always continues... but that’s not really relevant. Climate change does have undo buttons.

Things like biodiversity loss may not.

[marcosdumay]

Well, the further you go, the less likely is it that you can row it back... What is the exact opposite of engineering.

What means that you made a clear point, that I don't think anybody misunderstood, with a clear optimistic message. Still I think it's more pessimist than the reality.

[abathur]

We didn't have to understand the systems and their feedback loops to break them.