Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by IkmoIkmo 2470 days ago
Great points, although I would want to add a bit of nuance from my personal experience.

One thing that often gets overlooked in pricing is depreciation. Flagship models tend to keep their value quite well, whereas budget models depreciate to next to nothing.

Take the iPhone X, launched 2 years ago, used it's around $570 today, versus the $999 it launched at.

Meanwhile, a $300 phone tends to drop down to $100 on the 2nd hand market two years later.

It just doesn't hold value very well, for one because budget phones become so much better, and secondly because there's no marketing or natural demand for 2 year old budget phones, and stores themselves discount 1st hand versions of these phones to extreme extents 2 years later. Who here is googling to get a good deal on a second-hand Moto G5? A $300 phone 2.5yo phone that's $50 used today, and $150 new.

So after depreciation, the difference between a $1000 flagship and a $300 budget model isn't $700, rather it's the cost of depreciation $430 vs $200 (or $230 more).

That $220 isn't nothing, but it's $9.50 a month on a 2-year basis. If you compare that to say a Netflix account, a data plan, cloud storage subscription, Spotify, or two Starbucks coffees a month... $9.50 a month extra to carry a flagship phone is pretty doable for most people. And you get a top-notch flagship phone.

Not saying everyone should skip budget phones, but it's not as painful a financial decision as it may seem.

7 comments

That analysis ignores the costs of breakage, theft, care plan, or insurance excess.

To get the best money for a second hand phone, you also need a good case (which is another sunken cost).

It can make sense, but pay attention to to other costs, because they add up.

I also do what the GP does: buy mid-range Android phones (Nokia at present, used to buy Moto), and give them to family and friends after a few years.

On topic: Nokia phones have a phone jack and have Android One (2 years version update, 3 years security, plus many more years of secure browsing).

That calculation is contingent on the endpoint in both cases being "selling the old phone". I tend to hold onto all of my old phones and computers (still have 10+ year old MacBook Pros and iPhones going back to 3GS), so the residual value is $0 in both cases.
> Take the iPhone X, launched 2 years ago, used it's around $570 today, versus the $999 it launched at. > Meanwhile, a $300 phone tends to drop down to $100 on the 2nd hand market two years later.

This means the iPhone X still had more than twice the effective cost ($429) than the other phone ($200). So it depends on whether the user thinks that it’s more than twice as useful.

you forgot to take into account that most phones are replaced because they break - usually their display gets smashed. In this case budget phones come ahead too:

Let's say you drop your phone after 2 years of use.

If you got an iPhone X you need to spend around $300 on a screen replacement or sell if for $200.

If you got a 2 year old $300 phone you just buy a new for $300 (or do the replacement for $150.)

But anyway I really dont see a reason why someone would get a $500+ phone. I has better hardware (which most people wont make use of) and better design/bragging rights. What can do a $1000 phone better? A better camera (for most should not matter, instagram/facebook compresses your fancy images to shitty JPGs), a faster CPU/RAM (nowadays its barely noticeable unless you play stuff like Fortnite on your phone)

> you forgot to take into account that most phones are replaced because they break - usually their display gets smashed.

Is that true? If so, how do you know it to be true?

look up some statistics. For example here they say that 72 million phones are damaged/lost/stolen in the US each year: https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherelliott/2019/07/06/a...

Actually this article mentions phones being lost or stolen - another 2 cases where a cheap phone comes out much better.

It's true, just confirmed.
I do think it would be nice to see this kind of accounting taught in high schools.
I could imagine:

Oh, shit.. I have "How to trick yourself into thinking overpriced prestige consumer goods are worth it: 101" with Mr. Conner. That guy is a pervert.

Also let's not forget security updates in relation to Android phones...A two year old phone today, two years down the line may well not be receiving them
1. New Android phones are different: Android 9 was redesigned to make security updates by Google a lot easier. I have been buying Nokia which are getting good security upgrades/updates (and cost a few hundred USD).

2. Browsing on Android remains secure e.g. Android 4.4 is still getting Chrome updates (I think Chrome is generally more secure than Safari anyway). iPhones become insecure to use when they stop getting updates because the browser is not updated.

Note: nice recent article "Google can’t fix the Android update problem" https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/4/20847758/google-android-up...

I didn't know: "starting with Android 10, a new initiative called “Project Mainline” will mean some of the plumbing inside Android can be updated directly via the Play Store."

Nice graph showing that Nokia is really good at updating their devices (and also shows how abysmal most Android manufacturers are at updating versions!). That said, I haven't got Android 10 yet (although I might get it since it is a Nokia and I am still within the 2 year upgrade window).

The problem with HMD-Nokia is that most have a perma-locked bootloader. Otherwise, very nice phones.
Yeah - I used to only buy phones with an unlockable bootloader. But I found that I didn't actually ever install open source firmware (I have, but I don't trust the security).

Aside: the Android 9 security update feature is Project Treble. However apparently it doesn't make that much difference for many brands/networks because Google doesn't control the updates directly: https://www.computerworld.com/article/3306443/what-is-projec...

However, my Nokia has been getting security updates quickly enough for me. And I love dual SIM when travelling.

that's usually my thought process as well, and also that high end phones are generally using this year's newest components while the mid range ones are using parts from previous years to dave money. two years from now the high end phone you bought might still be able to hold its own while you will have trouble selling the mid range