There's a reasonable related article here [1]. It discusses two different studies on the effects of Seattle's minimum wage increases. The first is from Berkeley and based on limited data. It suggested there was mostly just a small reduction in employment with an overall positive effect. The other study was from the University of Washington and had access to detailed low level data on hours worked, salaries, etc. It found numerous very negative affects, many of which were worse than even minimum wage critics generally suggest might occur. This included an overall gross decline in overall wages due to declines in hours being worked - overall wages rose 3% while the number of hours worked declined 9%.
The reason I mention the Berkeley study at all is because this now led to arguments based on after-the-fact retrofitting. In particular increase supporters have now tried to argue that Seattle was in a unique boom phase and so the study was comparing against a local max, and thus there was actually no damage - but just Seattle 'regressing to the mean' if you will. But the Washington study also considered this possibility and contrasted it against other control cities within Washington that did not increase wages, and found that they did not experience the negative effects. And so on back and forth it goes.
And so who do you believe? Probably whoever you want to be right. This is why I'd suggest laying out metrics beforehand. If Seattle was in a unique boom phase before the minimum wage increases then this is something everybody could agree on beforehand. When you do after-the-fact analysis, you risk peoples biases getting in the way of things. And because of the complexity of systems such as these, it's always going to be pretty easy to prove X and also prove not X after the fact.
The reason I mention the Berkeley study at all is because this now led to arguments based on after-the-fact retrofitting. In particular increase supporters have now tried to argue that Seattle was in a unique boom phase and so the study was comparing against a local max, and thus there was actually no damage - but just Seattle 'regressing to the mean' if you will. But the Washington study also considered this possibility and contrasted it against other control cities within Washington that did not increase wages, and found that they did not experience the negative effects. And so on back and forth it goes.
And so who do you believe? Probably whoever you want to be right. This is why I'd suggest laying out metrics beforehand. If Seattle was in a unique boom phase before the minimum wage increases then this is something everybody could agree on beforehand. When you do after-the-fact analysis, you risk peoples biases getting in the way of things. And because of the complexity of systems such as these, it's always going to be pretty easy to prove X and also prove not X after the fact.
[1] - https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/26/business/economy/seattle-...