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by bluGill
2475 days ago
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It will be a while. Cars typically last for a bit over 10 years. Thus even if new cars were 100% electric today it would barely show up on anyone gas station bottom line this quarter. Next year it would show up of course, nobody would close but every CEO would mention it in their message to shareholders (along with their plans whatever they might be to deal with it). In 3 years the weakest stations will start closing, but this will be a positive for each on that remains. In 10 years you will need to search for pumps but there will still be enough to drive all major routes in a gas car without range anxiety. In 15 years there will start to be problems, but you will be able to get personal deliveries of fuel (farmers already do this for tractors) and pack a few full gas cans if you need it. The above assumes 100% electric. However I think electric will hit a plateau at around 90%. For that last 10 % (might be 5) the power to weight advantage of liquid fuel is important enough to keep a few trucks on the road (not cars or SUVs, but perhaps buses and motor homes). While it is possible to make a truck work on electric, many of them are already weight constrained, (because roads and bridges cannot handle anything heavier) or license constrained (without a CDL you can only haul so much), either way less weight in the fuel system translates into more weight they can haul. There is a lot of energy in 100 gallons (400 liters) of diesel fuel, and big trucks and equipment will burn that much fuel in a day. So long as liquid fuel (
including biodiesel) is available some applications will be willing to pay a premium to get it. |
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