[rgbrenner]

> Hard to imagine it takes 10 more years for the rest of the country to catch up to California.

At that rate, California won't surpass 10% until the mid-2020s--maybe 2024/5. Remember, it's already 2019 and in a few months, it'll be 2020. Late-2020s is only a 3-4 years past the mid-2020s.

[TheSpiceIsLife]

Is is reasonable to think the rate of change will increase?

[tomatotomato37]

Probably; the design of a radically different automobile model family takes around 4-5 years, which includes R&D, tooling, new supply chains, etc. This is masked by auto manufacturers constantly throwing out facelifts with a couple gimmicks glued on every year, but the majority of big changes usually come out on a decade basis. The Model 3 came out in 2017; if we assume conventional manufacturers started design of dedicated EV platforms during that time then we should start seeing a large burst of EV models coming out in 2021-2022, spurring demand. That will also probably be the do-or-die point for tesla to get their manufacturing squared away, since that's when the industrial juggernauts of Honda, VW, and the like will be retooled and coming online.

[flyingfences]

To some extent, for some time. Consider the adoption bell curve; I think California has moved from the "innovators" stage to "early adopters" but the country as a whole has not. Consider also what the saturation point for electric cars will be in the near/medium term - I doubt that the other end of the bell curve is 100% adoption.

[dougmany]

Battery costs are coming down. When electric cars are cheaper than equivalent ICE cars, people will switch.

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2019/8/27/128006-156...

from here https://seekingalpha.com/article/4288312-bulls-bears-wrong-t...