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Estimating the duration of software projects
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1 points
by fernando
6582 days ago
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Hi, All my guestimates of project duration have been so far ridiculously optimistic and I usually err by a factor of 4x or worse. Is there any way out of this? How can I improve my estimates? Is there ANY book or technique worth learning? Any help would be greatly appreciated. |
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I've found that the more detailed my estimation process, the less optimistic my estimates are. Generally speaking, if I break down what I'm planning on doing into units which I think should take a month each, I end up with an estimate which is 2x less than the actual time I will take; if I break things down into units of a week each, I end up with an estimate which is optimistic by a factor of 1.5x; but if I break things down into units which I think can be done in a day each, I tend to come very close to being correct.
I don't know if this trend is something other people experience; but if it is, the obvious solution is to think more carefully about all of the small steps which make up the big steps.