[Scirra_Tom]

Met a professional football (soccer) better in a gambling convention here in the UK a few years back. He had a small team of AI computer scientists.

Told me his average bet size was £100,000, and his edge was in the region of ~1% (EV of £1,000 per bet). Interesting guy but you have to have a huge amount of cash and real belief in your model to ride out the variance!

Pretty sure he wanted to bet bigger but there was an issue with available volume.

[PaulRobinson]

The only place he's going to be able to get that size of bet on is on the exchanges, and even then it's going to be a struggle for many games. I'm guessing he's sticking to EPL games or Champions League, which means he has to be super, super sharp.

He'd actually make more money by betting less and looking to the smaller markets, I expect because the edge is likely multiples of 1% there. Strange that he hasn't.

[hogFeast]

No. You can bet multiples of £100k on the Asian books. There are people putting down millions on CL games with no issue (you can put down £100k+ on the Championship ffs). Exchanges represent a tiny fraction of the market (and only mugs bet on the main ones, you need to go through a white-label to get decent commission rates..again these are usually run by Asian bet brokers).

1% is also a fairly decent ROI. What you are missing is that you compound at 1% weekly. And if you are putting down bets on other leagues with a higher ROI, you are likely making well over 50%/year.

[PaulRobinson]

On that level of throughput, even on the main exchanges, they'll be paying 2% max, and perhaps less. Betfair's Premium Charge might be an issue, but a discussion could be had I'm sure, for that level of liquidity.

Going through the Asian books has problems. You're basically dealing with money launderers. Would you be happy to trust that process and team on £100k+ sized bets?

And I did not "miss" the 1% compounding. I get it. I do it myself. At 1% per game, if they're doing EPL, Championship, 2-3 other European leagues and CL, they should be getting 300% or more per year return, which means the £4m-£5m capital they have today to work be able to make those bets (minimum), will make them £10m profit in the next year.

If they are actually hitting those numbers, the Asian books will shut them down. If they are not hitting those numbers, well, they're not getting 1% per game.

I would strongly advise you don't take the stories people tell you in this area as direct, god's honest truth.

[hogFeast]

You don't seem to understand how or why Asian books exist (which does explain your odd views). You aren't dealing with money launderers (the only reason they have that reputation is because the Chinese govt calls people who buy foreign currency "money launderers" because buying foreign currency is, mostly, illegal), you are dealing with the biggest bookies in the world (they are far bigger than any in the UK).

And they are happy to do business with winning players because they aren't like UK books. UK books make markets on ML, that means they don't have a balanced book, and therefore need to take risk. Your only edge as a UK bookie is, therefore, marketing and finding enough mugs.

Asian books mainly make AH markets, this means a balanced book, and their only aim is to make the overlay as a commission. This means that they need sharp bettors to come in and move the line. They lose money on bets with sharps but their lines are now efficient so they make it all back and then some. All the biggest books (Pinny, SBOBet, etc.) do this. And some of them actually open lines privately for sharps to bet on before they go public (this is how StarLizard gets so much down, Tony Bloom used to work at an Asian book).

Btw, most of the large UK books trade in Asia too. It is the epicentre of betting in the world. They don't shut down accounts. It isn't money laundering.

Also, you appear to know nothing about Betfair too. Betfair white-labels through bet brokers to offer lower commissions to big bettors (I don't use Betfair but I know these deals START at 2%, no premium charge). No professional goes through Betfair directly.

Your maths for the ROI is also wildly inaccurate. Basic. I'll leave it to you to work out why.

Less conspiracy theories pls.

[user5994461]

There are fees from the exchanges and the bookers that are higher than 1%. If you only have 1% hedge, you're losing money on the long run.

[hogFeast]

Edge is always after fees (and, as said twice in the post, you are not betting on an exchange or with a bookie if you are putting down £100k/game...you will be dealing with a broker, your trading cost won't be as high as 1%).