[d2viant]

I had a professor that told me it's actually a good strategy to make wild predictions far in the future. If you're right, you look like an oracle. If you're wrong, nobody remembers to go back and dig up "he predicted this on this date", primarily because they're already focused on the next predictions. Most of the time it's a win-win; the farther out in the future the better.

[khafra]

It's not just wild predictions far in the future; even next year will usually do you more good than harm. Published predictions aren't meant to have anything to do with the future, they're for your enjoyment here and now[1].

[1] http://lesswrong.com/lw/hi/futuristic_predictions_as_consuma...

[car387]

Seth Godin makes a similar point to be unafraid of "claim chowder" - what happens when you make a prediction about the future and you end up being totally and tragically wrong. No one remembers!

http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2010/11/unwarranted-...

[comex]

Unless John Gruber doesn't like you.

[car387]

Yes, there's that of course :)

[FiddlerClamp]

It's worked for nearly every famous psychic - see Jeane Dixon.

[joe_the_user]

But an end to the housing bubble was hardly a wild prediction, just common sense.

Either some new law that would let bubbles go on forever had just appeared or the bubble would end in a bit. You just didn't know exactly which bit.

Indeed, in any bubble, some percentage are fooled by the argument du jour that "this time it's different" and another percentage are simply trying to find the bigger fool. Sure, a lot of people know the bubble will pop but without knowing exactly when, they don't really an incentive to do anything.