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by fujiters 2486 days ago
If things get seriously unaffordable as a renter, it's always possible to move somewhere more affordable.

Housing, on average, rises at the rate of inflation (it's closely linked to the cost of new construction), per Robert Shiller's research. Even if the housing market explodes in one area, there's almost certainly another area where it hasn't (normally one without restrictions on new construction-San Fransisco being a prime example of a place where housing prices have skyrocketed due to such restrictions).

1 comments

Affordable places don't have jobs. This is not a trend that's reversing anytime soon.

> Housing, on average, rises at the rate of inflation

I don't care about the price of the average house in the country. I care about the price of a house within a commuting distance of where I can find gainful employment.

Right now, the prices of homes in those areas are skyrocketing, while the prices of homes in areas that don't have gainful employment are nosediving. Take the average, and you'll find that it tracks inflation... And is a worthless metric.

> Even if the housing market explodes in one area, there's almost certainly another area where it hasn't

Yes, and none of those areas are ones where young people can make a living.

The socially optimal thing would of course be for retirees to consider selling their million-dollar coastal metro homes and move to cheaper areas, like the interior. But as long as they have access to HELOCs, they don't feel any pressure to do them. They can just borrow money against their million-dollar home, instead of downsizing. This is also not going anywhere. It would be political suicide to force grandma and grandpa to move to the boonies, just so that their grandkids, who need to work in the city could afford to live in it.

"I care about the price of a house within a commuting distance of where I can find gainful employment."

I really didn't like it for several reasons, but not too long ago I briefly lived inside the DC beltway and had a 10 minute commute to work, and paid $1000/month for half a 2 bedroom apartment in a mid-rise that was pretty decent.

Perhaps grandkids should ask to move in with grandma? She might like the company. :)

In seriousness, not all metro areas have seen the same huge rise in rents and property values. I can personally vouch that the Baltimore-DC region offers relatively high paying jobs and housing that is adorable given those incomes. I've heard San Antonio, TX is also good on the jobs to housing costs front.

Neither Baltimore or San Antonio are in Canada.
Montreal and Quebec City seem reasonable, but this is based purely on a few web searches.

I hope you end up in a place where you can start building some financial security.

Also, run the numbers on long term renting in areas where housing prices are high. There's sometimes a high opportunity cost to having a ton of your savings stuck in the down payment for a house when you could otherwise have it invested in low cost index funds or something similar.