[moomin]

This might just be me, but it strikes me that the biggest problem self-driving cars has is that no-one actually needs them. Don’t get me wrong, you try to sell me a car that has the (fully capable) feature I’d definitely want it. But need it? Well, you’re not going to solve the problem of too many cars and the slow traffic that results with cars. It’d be hard to get special treatment for cars with a premium feature. Then there’s the taxi model, where the aim of the game is to undercut people that Uber has already managed to push below minimum wage. I mean, there’s a margin there, but is it really “Next Google” sized? Even with dedicated vehicles, that’s a lot of hardware to maintain.

Now let’s assume it’s successful and sustainable. Let’s say we also manage to get it to work for freight. What have we achieved? Well, we’ve put a couple more of the jobs available to low-skilled workers on the scrap heap. There will be consequences to doing that, but I doubt Waymo will be footing that bill.

[gpm]

There are 3.5 million truck drivers in the US [0]. They are paid at least minimum wage. Alphabet has 148.299B revenue per year [1]. A conservative estimate of the revenue waymo could earn just by replacing truck drivers is 7.25 (minimum US minimum wage) * 40 (working hours per weeks) * 50 (working weeks per year) * 3.5 million = $50 billion a year.

I think once you expand past the US, and past trucks, this is definitely "Next Google sized".

[0] https://www.trucking.org/News_and_Information_Reports_Indust...

[1] https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/GOOG/alphabet/reve...

[Noos]

That's a pyrhhic victory though. You'd essentially convert trucking into retail, making a semi-skilled workforce as well as small entrepreneurial one into a just-in time near contract workforce with high barriers to entry to start businesses.

[josephagoss]

Disabled people need them, very old people need them. Drunk people need them.

Lots of people could do with a driverless car.

[alkonaut]

So long as I need to watch it, I don't feel a huge need for my personal car to be self driving. It doesn't free up any time for me, so I'm not ready to pay for it.

But if we had "full" self driving, as in the car can drive empty, that opens up new possibilities.

First of all, I could avoid owning a car all together. I could be part of a car sharing/pool system where I can summon a car when I want it instead. Those pools exist but their biggest drawback is you have to get TO the car instead of having it on your driveway.

Second, I could get driven home after having a drink. Where I live the legal limit is 0.02 so one drink equals a Taxi.

Those are features I'd very much be willing to pay for.

[paxys]

I personally think there are very few things we need today more than self driving cars. Driving is one of the most dangerous things we willingly do in our daily lives. There is an insane amount of valuable space in cities devoted to roads and parking, which is all used inefficiently. Valuable time is wasted in commutes and traffic.

Now imagine if every driver on the road followed all rules. Traffic flowed smoothly and there were fewer accidents. Your car dropped you in the middle of the city and drove out of sight till it was needed again. No one ever drove drunk or impaired. You could catch up on work or just watch something during your daily commute.

[rimliu]

Now imagine strong wind brought down a tree branch on the road. A strong rain crated a big puddle. Etc. There is a lot more to driving than just following the rules. And I do no see how self driving car reduce the need for roads. Or parking. And the time spend waiting for them to arrive can be significant.