Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by Doubl 2497 days ago
Isn't economics one of those disciplines where the more seriously a prediction is taken the less likely it is to be accurate. If people believe a prediction they alter their behavior and as a result the prediction fails.
1 comments

If I predict your car is going to crash based on the fact that the tyres are bald, the brakes are worn, and the steering wheel isnt attached. You probably (if you take the prediction seriously) want have a crash, because you'll get the car fixed.

So it isn't a particular problem of economics. The problem of economics is testing theories. I would guess that most economists have a theory that never gets tested, because you can't test them in a lab, only in real life, the depth of knowledge just isnt there to know what will work, what won't, and popular but wrong theories aren't proven wrong fast enough. I cant reasonably say whether bald tyres will cause a crash, because no ones seen bald tyres before.