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by jefe_ 2493 days ago
The U.S. business community decided years ago that manufacturing should move overseas. Ever since, the entire U.S. economy has been centered around the assumption of cheap imports, with the exception of one key product: microprocessors, a product where the U.S. has long retained dominance. This dominance provided an opportunity for balance in the U.S. trade relationship with China, but the leverage was never really used to truly demand changes to trade practices. Now, the U.S. is starting to wonder if moving everything to China was such a good idea, but due to Chinese microprocessor advancements, the U.S. lacks that key trade leverage item they had to realistically negotiate, and many of their traditional 'negotiating' techniques won't work with China.

The U.S. can't go to war with China.

The U.S. can't ban Chinese imports.

The U.S. can't overthrow Chinese Government.

Just as U.S. has built their whole economy around imports, China has done the same with exports, they need to put people in jobs and keep the exports flowing, so they have no real incentive to rework a favorable deal.

So really the U.S. is relegated to performing a Symbolic Trade war: Declare China a Currency Manipulator, Stir the pot in Hong Kong, Requesting Companies return to the U.S.

All the while, the markets are pretending the Trade War is real, delivering massive swings for large investors capable to profiting from the volatility.