[inflatableDodo]

Not having the trade fight plays out differently.

edit - I thought I'd respond to this bit as well -

>I'm not sure it is possible to distinguish one or another

When the President of the US is comparing China with the head of the Federal Reserve, in order to claim that the Federal Reserve is a domestic enemy, while systematically poisoning relations with any country that hosts a US military base, Denmark/Greenland being just the latest example, then I think it is possible to distinguish the two. Someone being random tends not to travel in a specific direction unless it is the path of least resistance.