[SolaceQuantum]

From what I understand it's the following:

* Certain sectors of US industries are being disproportionately harmed by the trade war: steel, agriculture, and similar.

* Other sectors of US industries, such as service and retail, are less affected, and are posting strong numbers. This, along with a tight job market, point to a generally strong economy even if specific industries are suffering.

* China is difficult to understand due to the government being known for opacity in their finances. Therefore, we can generally only speculate on second or third order effects of trends, eg. what does the currency floating mean? It means China is shifting financial strategies for X or Y. But we have no idea the X or Y reasoning, only speculations of possible reasons.

* There are several indicators of a recession coming on, including significant day-to-day dips and yield curve inversions and slowdowns in other regions like Europe. However, recessions can't be known until the numbers come out and womp womp we're in one.

[bb88]

So it might actually be worse, since news of the indicators might already mean that cutbacks in payroll are taking place. We would see that with the August jobs number (due out in the first week of next month). Smart companies want to be ahead of the recession curve.

The good news is that the labor force is at record highs. IOW were as close to full employment as we have ever been.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/02/us-jobs-report-july-2019.htm...

The bad news is there's no where to go but down.