[simonh]

That’s seems to be happening over NAFTA, you’ll likely just end up with a somewhat update NAFTA 2, which I’m sure will be the best trade deal in the history of trade deals, unlike the largely identical previous NAFTA.

I think the China tariffs are different. Both sides have doubled down, then doubled down again. It’s even possible both Trump and China see this as an opportunity to reduce their dependency on each other.

China also may calculate thus could take some excess heat out of their economy. If there is a down turn, which many observers have been predicting anyway, they can blame Trump and make enduring austerity a patriotic issue.

A similar dynamic is playing out with Brexit. A no deal exit may be hugely damaging to both sides. But they each calculate they can blame it on the other side, and even paint anyone complaining about the effects as unpatriotic. That won’t necessarily persuade the complainers, but as long as it plays well to the politicians own support base that may not matter enough electorally.