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by wcoenen
2493 days ago
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> Rates didn't suddenly skyrocket after the ECB announced the end of QE. That's because the QE program only stopped increasing the ECB's assets. When bonds that are held by the ECB mature, the equivalent amount in new bonds is still being re-bought. I don't think negative deposit rates are really needed to have negative bond yields. You only need a bond buyer (e.g. the QE program) who drives up bond prices beyond the face value + all coupons. Negative interest rates were just a natural step in the progression of lower rates, zero rates, negative rates, and QE. The next thing will be some form of helicopter money. |
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Reinvesting maturing proceeds does not produce the same effect as net purchases. One, maturities are lumpy vs regularly scheduled net purchases. There have been rate shocks where idiosyncratic country events happened outside of maturities. Two, while the ECB can basically do whatever it wants, no new net purchases restricts its ability to act in an emergency. Three, size is much smaller.
>I don't think negative deposit rates are really needed to have negative bond yields. You only need a bond buyer (e.g. the QE program) who drives up bond prices beyond the face value + all coupons. Negative interest rates were just a natural step in the progression of lower rates, zero rates, negative rates, and QE. The next thing will be some form of helicopter money.
Note how I didn't mention anything about negative rates in particular; just low rates and that the deposit rate anchors things. Whether rates are negative or not really doesn't matter in isolation. What matters is the spread vs other less risky assets for the goals of the central bank. If a central bank indiscriminately purchases bonds without regard for existing yields or the deposit rate, they will quickly lose control over the market.