[byrneseyeview]

I'm not arguing that in every case one should say with 100% certainty that someone's outcomes will correspond to test scores. But aiming for a math-intensive career with an IQ of 90 would be like a 5'2" guy hoping to be a basketball star, or a 7'3" guy aspiring to be a jockey. You could tell them that, with the right willpower and determination, they can make it -- or you could tell them that, with a lot less willpower and determination, they can have a much better chance of being successful elsewhere.

I would appreciate it if you could explore some middle ground between omniscience and total ignorance. Tests that actually measure stuff give you data, and proudly claiming to be unswayed by data because you can imagine an exception is not rigorous.

[aswanson]

ests that actually measure stuff give you data, and proudly claiming to be unswayed by data because you can imagine an exception is not rigorous.

Agreed, and likewise I would appreciate an understanding of the lack of absolute certitude of the predictive power of said data to an instantiation without giving external factors weight.

Again, my argument was not intended as a parody, just as a nudge toward the "middle ground" you speak of.