[ylem]

Actually, given the differential in the unemployment rate between high school only and college graduates, I expect to see the fraction of people attending college to increase. Furthermore, given the job market for new graduates, I expect to see an increase in the numbers of students seeking masters degrees, hoping to wait out the downturn. It would be interesting to calculate the ROI on that. Imagine that you have student 1 hired in good economic times, vs student 2 hired in a tough labor market--the base salary could be significantly different--and if both have similar abilities and receive similar raises, I'd be curious what the lifetime impact on earnings would be--compared to say, the cost of a masters degree (even, discounting whether the masters degree has any value in terms of increasing the earnings potential of the candidate).

[p_nathan]

I rummaged up the numbers from the BLS this fall for unemployment vs. education over the past 10 years. They came out to something like this:

No HS degree: > 10% unemployment

HS/some college: 7-9% unemployment

Associates: 5-7%

Bachelors+: 4%

Seasonal fluctuations drop dramatically as education levels go up.

I have heard anecdotally that Masters+ is 2%, but the BLS did not provide data there.

The BLS did not quantify the jobs (e.g., the MA in English working as a barista qualifies as employed).

My conclusion is this: the data recommends a degree for employment, statistically speaking.