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by trilila 2491 days ago
Agreed. The eu is basically a german/french dictatorship. The thing is, once the uk recovers after the leave event, many other eu countries will follow suit.
2 comments

What? EU is loose federation of 28 EQUAL members

I think the UK has a problem with being an equal and has not got over its loss of empire, just look at how they treat their own constituent countries such as Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales

> What? EU is loose federation of 29 EQUAL members

To be fair: whatever us Germans and the French want, we eventually get - most often by outright nation-scale bribery. It's all backroom dealing - for example, us Germans get no opposition preventing harsher pollution regimes EU-wide (to protect our heavy car-oriented industry), the countries which would oppose get EU funding grants for construction or whatever.

Likewise for the UK. Not even talking about the outrageously good (even slightly unfair) membership rebate they have, I remember reading that the UK has been outvoted around 2% of the time at the EU level, and not on important matters either.
To be fair: an economically stronger partner getting more of what they want because of backroom dealing etc. is not a "german/french dictatorship" as stated by OP - it's simple realpolitik.
> just look at how they treat their own constituent countries such as Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales

Don't forget England. Brexit is basically just an English nationalist idea. Ironically, if the UK had devolved more powers to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland (something the Westminster parliament has generally fought against), England might have found its own thirst for taking back control satiated.

The eu is far from a federation. And there is much imbalance between eu countries that a few more will burst against germany’s dictats. Everything that happens in the eu is decided by that country. Really worrying that few other countries speak up against it.
Care to provide an example?
I'm not taking the side of GP, but I just want to point out that the resolution to the financial crisis 10 years was very much in Germany's favour.
also, the weak Euro reduces the cost of German exports making them more competitive - effectively they benefit from having other EU members being poor. There are supposed to be rules about trade deficits so that stronger economies don't swamp the weaker ones but these are just ignored. Of course, a large advanced industrial economy like the UK should be able to keep up with that and similarly take advantage …
They won’t recover, that’s not how trade works.
EU is more than just a trade agreement and there is nothing preventing trade agreements between the UK and the EU from being developed post-brexit.
1st of November, Boris (or whoever is PM then) asks EU for trade deal. They respond with, "great, so about:

1. Irish border and Good Friday agreement

2. EU Citizens rights in UK

3. Payment of billions to which previous UK governments signed up to as EU member

4. How will you ensure low quality food from US does not enter EU"

This is how international trade works. It's intimately intertwined with diplomacy and each party will play according to its own interests, related or not.

Just like Russia could say "no gas for you" if you make too much of a fuss about what happened in Crimea.

Now if the UK's view of its own future diverges from the EU, it's totally normal to see complications appear during negotiations.

After leaving, the UK will be in a weak negotiating position. Recession is almost certain, and even using an existing trade deal like CETA as a basis will take multiple years to negotiate because of the current UK red lines, like controlling their own immigration policy.

Canada had to adjust their immigration policy for several EU countries to get CETA. The UK will be over a barrel and will have to make major concessions.

Whether you're pro EU or not this situation is a total balls-up.

Exactly. This is going to go extremely badly for the UK.
Watching the UK negotiating a trade deal with the USA and China at the same time, considering the current geopolitical climate, will be outright interesting. Also take the HK situation into consideration.

Hard to imagine a good outcome.