[krastanov]

Yes, two or more orders of magnitude of improvement are very much expected by most researchers in this field, simply because the current state of the hardware is infantile compared to what we know is possible (it just takes a lot of work to put all the different improvements in a single experiment).

[mlyle]

That's a completely different argument. "Researchers think we'll get two more orders of magnitude in a reasonable time" is quite different from saying "if we extrapolate this curve, we'll get there in 5 years". After all, exponents describe growth until they don't-- eventually we reach physical or economic limits (Moore's law has tapered off; bacteria in a dish of agar show exponential growth until they don't anymore, etc.)

I highly doubt we'll get there in 5 years, myself.