[adventured]

Well here's the premise that nobody is talking about -

If China continues to ascend toward military superpower status and they aggressively press on a position regarding Greenland, the US will invade Greenland to secure the territory.

The US has been willing to invade all manner of foreign nations over the past ~75 years for varying reasons. The idea of China occupying Greenland militarily in any manner will never - not under any circumstances - be tolerated by the Pentagon and politicians in DC. Greenland is a militarily critical territory for the US superpower. The US military will invade and occupy Greenland, against the protest of the EU, Denmark, Russia and everybody else. It'll be argued as a national security matter of utmost importance and that will be the justification. They'd also say it's temporary (it wouldn't be). It'd be an annexation in everything except for name.

The US will take Greenland for $0, outside of the cost of occupation.

edit: people will downvote this because it's so upsetting. I understand. Back in reality, it's by far the most likely scenario in the next 30 years. The US paying $5t or $10t? It would never happen. Why would you do that if you're a military superpower, when you can trivially invade any time you want to, under any pretense. The US went into Vietnam and fought in a civil war that wasn't its own, a war that killed millions. But the US won't invade Greenland (a whopping 56k people) and occupy it, to keep it from China (a new military superpower setting up shop right up the street from the US)? Yeah right. An interesting part of this, is that the same people that think the US is an evil superpower, will pretend this isn't the obvious scenario that is going to happen (we'll go into Iraq, but not Greenland, etc). The US will declare that it's necessary to keep Greenland and its people safe.

Here's the propaganda bumper sticker for when it happens: Keep Greenland Safe! Short & easy to sell to the American people, it'll be on every truck.

[YawningAngel]

Greenland is a NATO member and, via Denmark, represented in the European Union. Greenland ain't worth picking that fight over. China won't invade it for much the same reason.

[adventured]

There would be no fight over it. It's a territorial protection maneuver to protect Greenland, led by the US.

US media combo military industrial complex headline: US does the security job that some NATO members refuse to do.

The PR push would be that it's not an annexation. It's not an occupation. It is temporary. It's about keeping Greenland safe, defending Greenland.

The representation at the EU via Denmark is meaningless. Neither Denmark nor the EU have any military power to stop the US from doing this. The US will easily be able to muddy the water enough politically by leaning on allies in Europe like Poland and Britain, to argue that it is in fact important to keep Greenland safe. In the end nobody will really do anything to stop it.

Which part of NATO is going to fight the US to stop this exactly? Right, none of it.

You know how batshit crazy Iraq was? 10x more so than what going into Greenland would be by comparison. And yet the US won't do it? Of course it will, if it thinks it needs to in order to prevent China from setting up there militarily. There are countless ways to spin it, to play it, in order to get from point A to point occupation re NATO.

[learc83]

Why invade? The Navy would just form a blockade to prevent Chinese ships from approaching if it ever came to that.

China has zero force projection capability outside of Asia. Their is no chance they are pulling off an invasion of Greenland anytime in the foreseeable future.

Also we already have an Air Force base in Greenland--there is no realastic scenario where a US invasion is necessary or even useful.

"Nope we aren't leaving. Any attempt to force us to leave will be seen as a hostile action, as will any attempt to establish a Chinese military presence."

That's all it takes.