| >been told I should worry about it for years now There was people mid financial crisis who were still denying the recession. There are tons of people who are saying we are going to have a recession during market highs. >but Australia's economy hasn't broken yet (it's weak, but that just means it's doing better than comparable nations but less than what it could be if we weren't being mismanaged by the most incompetent government this side of the black stump). I'm not Aussie; love Australia though. Politics aside, that's the thing people don't understand right before a debt cycle. Housing prices go sky high, car manufacturing dies, debt becomes tremendously cheap, manufacturing isms crash or contract, prime rates usually just went up, unemployment at historical lows. Literally all these indicators are pretty strong indicators and ALL of them are happening. >how can I rely on a forecast that is eternally bad? I guess the economy will turn sour eventually, but I can't rely on a prediction that's always bad news since I'll miss all the good. That's more a perspective. If you watch CNBC, they literally didn't believe the financial crisis was happened and it has been a bull market since forever. Zerohedge on the otherhand will have an article a day explaining how society's downfall is upon us. The important thing to understand is that literally nobody has a clue what's going to happen. We may never have another recession; ETFs and passive nature of investing could lead to markets just being completely stable from now on. Bitcoin could be the one picking up all the volatility, leaving the stock markets stable. Personally I think the debt cycle is immutable. One person's spending is another person's paycheque. When the automotive sector has basically started laying off people because people aren't buying cars; and it's happening to all Euros, Japanese, and North America car manufacturing companies are all laying people off. That's the beginning of the cycle downturn. |