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by panarky 2500 days ago
Yikes, this whole thread is so provincial.

Yes, the US president is an economic imbecile, but $50 billion dollars in tariffs is a drop in the ocean of the $100 trillion global bond market.

This is a much, much bigger deal than US politics or a US trade war.

Interest rates are negative on $15 trillion worth of debt. All German government bonds have negative rates, all the way out to 30 years.

Policymakers don't like to say the word "deflation" out loud, because even talking about it could make it happen.

But when the economy softens, and central banks have no more ammunition left to stimulate the economy, deflation could be the terrifying result.

Negative long-term rates are what you would expect in a deflationary economy. And, yes, you can have a deflationary economy even while some prices are increasing.

2 comments

Humans are susceptible to narratives and trends. Even if the total dollar amount is low if every business cuts spending by 10% “just to be careful in case things get bad” because they here a narrative that the trade war will reduce demand...their collective action will create a recession.
How does deflation affect all the stock buybacks happening? Under these conditions, are stocks a good place to keep your cash?