[jjwhitaker]

The bond yield curve inversion mentioned in the article has led every recession in the last 70 years by 12-24 months. It's an indicator, because we don't know the future, but it's historically accurate to a T. On some level it is self fulfilling but the evidence of past crashes is there too.

Auto loan defaults are at a high, as is student and household debt (higher than 2007). Those auto loans are often bundled almost exactly like junk mortgages in 2007 leading to a similar investment risk. More americans live paycheck to paycheck than ever before possibly increasing the number needing support should unemployment jump back up to 12%, where it was when Obama took over in 2009. It won't be as bad but the federal government under Trump/GOP has cut taxes and drastically pumped up the deficit putting us in a worse position to weather a recession of any length. Cuts to social programs will also extend a recession or at least increase it's effects as people will still need food and affordable housing. The number on social security will increase while less will be employed to pay in and as SS was used as a piggy bank for GOP spending decades ago that system could go from failing in a few decades to gone.

It could be 6-12 months of job losses and stock market falls like the .com bubble but it could quickly complicate as the government may be slow or unable to respond in traditional ways due to lack of funding, lack of staffing (an existing issue in the current admin), lack of experience of the current staffing, and continued conservative/GOP attacks on social programs and minority groups most likely to be hit hard by any recession.

It's like Jenga. In 2007 a core lower block was pulled and a lot of pieces went with it but we had the leverage federally to hold some in place or put back others like auto manufacturers. This time, the piece may be much higher up but automakers are already suffering under tariffs and the federal government won't have the funding capacity or push by the GOP led government to react in time and, like midwest farmers, that could be the end of an era for some industries.