Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by esotericn 2504 days ago
To me, it's mind bendingly frustrating that we're even considering things in terms of a 'reduction from current emissions'.

It's like someone deeply in debt cutting their spending by 5% or whatever.

What is actually required is that we start from zero emissions and work upwards - e.g. if we need some agriculture, that's some unavoidable CO2 right now until we have electric solar powered tractors or whatever, and so on.

The reduction method is so far from the correct approach that even if it works, it doesn't work, as you've stated, because it's based on the idea that we just go on as normal with small tweaks.

It's looking like we actually need to create a completely different economy, rapidly, in order to survive. Oh boy.

3 comments

Yeah, but that's completely politically infeasible. There's no way to get people to just stop using existing resources to improve their quality of life - or even to keep their quality of life at current levels - without any immediate tangible consequences. And of course, by the time the disaster arrives, it'll be too late to change.

Or, correction, there's one way to get them to do that: Point guns at them.

(Un?)fortunately, the vast majority of the developed world lives under democratic government, and the same people who would rather not massively and suddenly reduce their wealth and quality of life in response to future predictions also would rather not have martial law imposed to convince them to do so.

So the "tiny ineffectual reductions from current emission levels" is the only possible framework under which any kind of preemptive climate action can actually happen. You're correct that there's no way this can solve the problem; the correct response is to understand that we're just basically fucked and the only ways out include things like "establish, by force, oppressive totalitarian global state oriented around climate management" which would damage the future world we live in just as much as climate change would, but in a different way.

We're just fucked. And there's a certain liberty in that! You don't have to worry about whether or not we'll fix the problem; we won't, so there's no troublesome uncertainty. Just go see the sights around the world you'd like to see before they're destroyed.

What you're saying is probably fairly accurate though I don't like to accept it.

We're in a world full of people grabbing and using as much as they can with no care for what that means for themselves never mind other people. Unexamined lives. People would have to change habits that are nothing worth fighting for to begin with.

I don't care for seeing the sights, though I do care for the world to not become some sort of theme park terraformed (... ha) nightmare for humans to survive.

The answer for me is going to be to continue to do my best regardless because to do otherwise would be barbaric. In a lawless world I wouldn't become a mass murderer just because society allowed it.

>that are nothing worth fighting for to begin with

Frankly, air conditioning alone is worth fighting for. The wealth and comfort generated by our carbon-spewing economy is the greatest achievement in mankind's history - and developing nations reaching towards it would be right to fight for it.

Having to make the kind of far-reaching sacrifices needed to prevent climate change at this late stage would (if we actually did it) be among the greatest tragedies in human history, second only to the tragedy of what will happen if we don't.

Ah well, since this is a representative democracy, we've delegated the murdering to our elected representatives.

Assuming you're USian or EUian, our governments already fuck with refugees who want to move to a livable part of the planet because (amongst other things) climate change made their part of the planet not livable. And this fucking has lead to many deaths for sure...

>Yeah, but that's completely politically infeasible. There's no way to get people to just stop using existing resources to improve their quality of life - or even to keep their quality of life at current levels - without any immediate tangible consequences. And of course, by the time the disaster arrives, it'll be too late to change.

So, to paraphrase, it's like we're on the Titanic, sinking, but there's no way to stop people from dancing and dining on the upper deck, and start getting on the lifeboats or helping close the rift.

Here's a closer analogy: We're on the Titanic. It's sinking, probably, but it's still mostly possible to ignore it. Some very smart people have calculated that the lifeboats cannot possibly hold the weight of everyone aboard; if we are going to save ourselves, either we have to start throwing some people overboard, or we all have to cut off a limb to meet the weight allowance.

Nobody is especially eager to do either of those things - the people who would have to be thrown overboard are especially not enthusiastic about it, and nobody's exactly enthused about the alternative solution of choosing our least favorite arms. So as long as it's possible to pretend that everything's going to be fine and we're not sinking and the hole isn't that big anyway and even if it was, we could always patch it eventually, and even if we can't, maybe rescue will get here in time ... we're not going to resort to that. Not until we absolutely, really have to.

By the time we're desperate enough to resort to such things, it will be too late and there will no longer be time to select who to throw overboard or conduct the necessary amputations.

I get that you're having a bit of fun with this, but is there a reason you're throwing about words like 'amputation'?

Globally we currently burn coal for 30% of electricity consumption. All fossil fuels put together is like 90%.

We have people jetting around the world for short-term thrills or business meetings that could be done over the phone. We have people in the US who think it's appropriate to drive 7mpg trucks and throw clouds of shit at pedestrians.

We have such a ridiculous amount of waste in the system that could be completely eliminated with minimal impact.

It may politically be difficult, or impossible to achieve, sure. And perhaps it won't be enough anyway. But it seems to me like you're imagining literally any change in lifestyle to be an 'amputation'.

Am I, or you, 'amputated' relative to some arbitrary person who has double, triple, quadruple the carbon footprint? If not, why not?

Why must the standard for amputation be whatever people have right now rather than considering that at the moment perhaps we're running around with Iron Man suits we have to take off?

Or are you saying that forcing the ignorant masses to make those changes would be a sort of amputation? Because there are too many people who will just tell you 'fuck u gon burn ma oil' or whatever?

There aren't even lifeboats in this analogy... or has someone built a spaceship to sustain life off earth?
"Get into lifeboats" I just meant as "do something to stay alive", not as in "escape somewhere else" necessarily.
For agriculture, the tractors themselves are producing negligible CO2. Most all farm emissions come from fertilizer and right now we produce nearly all of our commercial fertilizer from fossil fuels. In order to synthesize fertilizer from the air and other renewable sources we are looking at a near 100 fold increase in power requirements. IE, our current total world energy production would have to go almost 100% towards fertilizer production to produce what we currently use. And we aren't anywhere near producing that much renewable energy yet either. We are basically fertilizing our fields with fossil fuels, and that fossil fuel fertilizer accounts for around 60% of the world's total crop yield.
Yeah, we need a "reboot to safe mode" economy... stop all economic activity for luxury and just allow things for survival. So, mangoes from Latin America? Gone. Hollywood movies? Gone. That stupid Uberesque startup? Fuck off and take this shovel, they want you to plough the field!
You might be joking, but I think that really is what we need, globally. An example could be - I should go to the supermarket, and just not be able to buy anything outside of a tight range of 'sustainability per nutrition'. Not rice and beans, but ridiculous offenders like say, fruit with air miles could be right out.

The idea that it'd be somehow terrible for this to happen baffles me.

Why couldn't it be more like WWI/WWII but without the explicit killing involved?

We are at war, and we need a war effort.

> fruit with air miles

So put a couple of billion farmers in developing nations out of work?

It's going to be complex and messy either way, I guess.

Yeah, because their harvest failing is going to be much better.

Anything that changes ever puts someone "out of work" temporarily until they figure out another way to make a living.

There's probably a name for this sort of 'but jobs' thinking. It feels like some variant of broken window fallacy. If your job is dependent on enormous negative externalities, then yeah, it's probably not sustainable, and someday it won't exist any more.

It's tragic, for example the German government is weak on environment because, well, VW (including Audi and Porsche), BMW, Mercedes, and their many suppliers. They're afraid of manufacturers having to lay off workers...