[kromem]

I've recently been thinking about how we often talk academically about the idea of the market being efficient, but not so much about the time frame for that efficiency.

In essence, the market is simply an economic manifestation of evolutionary theory.

But the same way if evolution took place for an organism with rapid mutations and a short life cycle across seasons, you'd potentially have most of the species adapting to cold weather and then suddenly dying off during summer, our short outlooks are probably creating market optimizations that are adaptive in the short term but maladaptive in the long term (as an obvious example, trying to cover up global warming instead of plan around its inevitability).

I keep seeing the market make changes that make sense if the world was going to end in the next five years, and dig itself into a deeper and deeper hole, continually confident in its wisdom.