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by A2017U1 2506 days ago
How much money did private enterprise make from the Arab Spring? Hundred billion or so?

To pretend like it was a moral issue is insane. Most people don't care in the slightest in democratic countries. Virtually every country involved in sending troops couldn't point to it on a map nor talk about the region with any sort of knowledge. We walked in and replaced Hussein with ISIS. It will go down as 21st century Vietnam.

China has nukes. Absolutely nothing will happen regardless, just like 30 years ago. Perhaps some more outrage on twitter I guess?

5 comments

> China has nukes. Absolutely nothing will happen

China has shown (again) in their treatment of Hong Kong that they don't care about past agreements. The least that anyone can do, even in the presence of nukes, is to get their business out of China, and that is already happening to some degree. And of course be welcoming to people who choose to emigrate from Hong Kong.

> China has shown (again) in their treatment of Hong Kong that they don't care about past agreements.

Every nation that feels it is powerful enough reneges on past agreements when it's strategic to do so: Russia[1], Great Britain[2], and even the current US admin which is set on rolling back every agreement that Obama might have been involved with, chief among them the Iran nuclear deal (JCPA).

Realpolitik-wise; any country with a permanent seat on the US security council can do as they please.

1. nuclear agreement with US

2. disavowed multiple agreements with former-colonies, especially under Tony Blair whose government didn't put much weight on being bound by the predecessor conservative government

This strikes to the heart of what my comment mentioned though: the vast majority of people don't care, Western consumer people especially. Not supporting it, simply saying it.

Make them care and things might change, truly. Don't bother with CEO's or governments, we all know who they serve.

How you can make people from one part of the world care for people from another part of the world?

If anythin, most HKers aren't very interested in what's happening around the world either, AFAIK.

China was always going to annex Hong Kong eventually, this is something almost everyone with any interest in this particular situation has known for many years.

Spinning that particular situation in a reason to boycott a country (and replace it with what? India isn't exactly a paragon of virtue and neither is the US, and let us never speak of the stain that is Russia) is a strange mental place to go to.

It wasn't going to "annex Hong Kong eventually", but in 2047. Changing a timeline by decades is exactly the stuff that businesses are allergic to, and it won't help this trend:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2019/07/16/europe-joi...

I don't see what's controversial about that. The bigger question is whether this will hurt China at all; time will tell.

> China was always going to annex Hong Kong eventually, this is something almost everyone with any interest in this particular situation has known for many years.

So if I told you you would be maimed in 10 years, does that make the maiming less painful when it happens? I'm not sure what you're getting at by stating that this was preordained to occur.

> China was always going to annex Hong Kong eventually,

You cannot annex your own territory.

HN turned into a website where quoting facts of Wikipedia gets you downvotes. I would have never thought that this site will reach this low.
My guess is that you are quoting it and arguing that statement out of context. And within that context, what you wrote, even though it is a fact in its own right, is wrong according to the original post.

And your post are still visible. Which suggest it is only a minor downvote.

Your timeline is a bit muddled here: the invasion of Iraq (involving a great many Western countries) was in 2003, the Arab Spring (where Western countries by and large steered well clear) was in 2010.
Other than the US and Britain and a token force from Australia, which western countries invaded Iraq?
Estonia, Salvador, Bulgaria, Moldova, Albania, Ukraine, Denmark, Czech Republic, South Korea, Tonga, Azerbaijan, Singapore, Bosnia and Hercegovina, Macedonia, Latvia, Poland, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Mongolia, Georgia, Slovakia, Lithuania, Italy, Spain, Thailand, Philippines, Iceland... and some more

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-National_Force_%E2%80%93...

That can't be right : the countries you list might have occupied Iraq at one point in time, but did not partake in the invasion.

It was the US, UK, AU and PL : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_invasion_of_Iraq

That link also adds Spain sending 1,300 invasion troops.
Thanks for the correction; didn't realize Mongolia was a western country.
The previous strongmen regimes were rather better for foreign investors than the current regimes and foreign investors would probably rather have seen stable governments gradually improving rights for foreign investors (certainly as an investor in one of those countries at the time through my work, from a purely business perspective I would have preferred a more peaceful path towards democracy). I don't think foreign investors were cheerleading the Arab spring therefore.
There's something absolutely twisted about your argument's implicit acceptance of a state that runs roughshod over its own populace, but treats foreign investors with the Velvet glove while turning a profit through the meat grinder.

If you can't see the good of the balance sheet shouldn't always justify the enablement of despotism... Well... I'm probably not going to make any convincing argument that'll make it past the pragmatism filter.

I think you misunderstood what I was saying - it wasn’t that I supported the strongmen regimes per se (or even that I think foreign investors as a group did) but that I was skeptical of the idea that the revolutions happened because ‘business’ wanted them. My view is that a smoother transition to democracy would have had most support from foreign investors. The revolutions were brutal for investors in those countries and more importantly for many of the people there.
> How much money did private enterprise make from the Arab Spring? Hundred billion or so?

Who and how? Outside of the Iraq/Afghanistan invasions, which were huge excuses to hand over pallets of untraceable bills to US contractors.

Quite a few telecoms etc companies lost money and assets in the strife. Or contracts with the collapsed governments.

Kind of agree, but it's still sad to see authoritarian China take Hong Kong by force, against their will, while other nations stay deaf to their cries for help.

At least some serious sanctions / embargo on some chinese industries as a direct result of their actions in Hong Kong would be good.