I think I remember seeing similar comments in 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018...
Snark aside, if your timeline is more than 10-15 years, why should you worry at all about recessions next year? On a long enough timeline, a recession is just a great buying opportunity.
>> if your timeline is more than 10-15 years, why should you worry at all about recessions next year? On a long enough timeline, a recession is just a great buying opportunity.
> Did you miss 2001-2008? Or are you being purposefully deceptive.
January 2000: 11,722.98
December 2001: 10,021.57
March 2003: 7,673.99
October 2006: 11,850.21 (beating the high of 1/2000)
October 2007: 14,164.53
March 2009: 6,507.04
December 2010: 11,577.51
January 2015: 17,164.95
Here we have a 15-year period which starts at the high price before the period you "called out". What are we supposed to view the low points as, if not great buying opportunities?
(Also, it's pretty apparent that 2001-2008 doesn't make sense conceptually as a single period.)
Not sure, what to take away from this list of numbers. From 2000 to 2010 I see a lost decade, with the index back where it started. You added the note "beating the high of ...". why not add two years afterwards "beating the low of ...", etc.
I added the note to October 2006 because that was the only reason I included it in the list at all. It wasn't a high point or a low point, just the middle of a long rise. March 2009 is a low point.
The bull market has been long. The crash is inevitable to be within a year or two. Of course various doomsayers have been vocal for a long time, but things eventually must come down.
When people like Ray Dalio are vocal about it there is something to it.
So? What if the market does crash? Just buy more index funds during the crash because after the crash the recovery is inevitable. If you are young (most HN commenters are), you can afford to wait for the recovery.
- There is a well-known business cycle that goes from boom to bust in about 7 - 10 years on average.
- Unemployment is at multi-decade lows; if you look at FRED graphs the unemployment hits a low right before the recession. Of course, nobody knows how low it will go, but it can't go much lower than it is now.
- Bond yields have inverted, which has been a reliable recession-in-one-year signal.
- The trade war can't improve corporate earnings.
- Maybe the trade war triggers something bad in the US and/or Chinese economy and we have another 1997.
- Any one-time earnings juice from the tax cuts is over, so the year over year comparisons are harder.
- The markets flipped out in Dec after the Fed raised rates (I think that's what it was) and dropped 20% in a week or two. The Fed made some conciliatory statements and the party was back on. The RMB appreciates by only a few percent, but over some psychological threshold of 7 RMB to 1 USD and the market flips out, dropping 3%. It feels to me like everyone is trying to pretend that the party is just getting started, but if you keep drinking, sooner or later you pass out. It's been 10 years, it's getting pretty late, people have to stop and go home sooner or later. Sooner or later something random is going to happen like in Dec and everyone is going to flip out. But this time they'll stay passed out for a while.
There are lots of indicators of worldwide trade slowing down. In the tech world there has been a rush of IPOs, signalling that the private funds are running dry, and so on. Companies like Ray Dalios Bridgewater track these things better then anyone. When he says that their projections point to it then there is little doubt.
Snark aside, if your timeline is more than 10-15 years, why should you worry at all about recessions next year? On a long enough timeline, a recession is just a great buying opportunity.