[CuriousSkeptic]

This was my understanding until a few weeks ago. But reading up on the subject paints a different picture. With the non-linear changes likely to be hit soon. Things are going to get serious for us too, and likely noticeably so within the next decade.

[xyzzyz]

Where did you read about these non-linear changes? Do these represent the climate change consensus, like e.g. IPCC?

[CuriousSkeptic]

To be honest I’m extrapolating a bit based on my own understanding of complex systems, and how the IPCC report things vs, how individual scientists interpret things, and how scientists tend to report things. But when reading IPCC watch out for language about “safe predictions” (linear extrapolations from historical data based is kind of safe, since it’s easily quantifiable, model based on uncertain non-linear changes in unprecedented conditions are less safe, so official reports are wary of quantifying things beyond hand wavy descriptions.

This YouTube channel was suggested here on HN a while back, and has been interesting to follow: https://www.youtube.com/user/PaulHBeckwith