[jjwhitaker]

Now the cost of entry to egg farming is 50% what you experienced and competition doubles as new firms can compete at rates below the margin you need to be profitable given your higher cost of entry. Although you also benefit from cheaper hens you are unable to contest with new firms and could go out of business as your original debt to buy hens becomes unsustainable.

In other words, external forces are unpredictable. Although not always the most profitable, proper risk and market assessment of an industry, its trends, and possible future are important considerations when launching a new endeavor. However, if we all knew hens were about to drop to half price tomorrow nobody would be buying today decreasing demand and ballooning supply until the prophecy is self fulfilled.