[mindslight]

Except there will be no imbalance if there is no other path for the current to travel by...

The geometry of the electric field in water should probably be similar to that in air (mostly contained to within the case), just don't drop both a toaster and a waffle maker in at separate ends.

[wrycoder]

The resistance of slightly salty bathwater is much lower than air. While baths are not often plumbed with metal pipes these days, one can still expect some current flow to ground. It only takes milliamps of stray current to trip a GFCI.

[mindslight]

Milliamps sounds like a tiny amount in the context of home power, but 5mA at 120V is still only 24kOhm. This is actually pretty low to just assume away. I'd agree there could be some water left over in the drain pipe from the last bath, splashes making a path to the spigot, or something like that. I just wouldn't count on it.

[devwastaken]

Iirc gfci's are nec code allowed on non grounded lines because they will still trip, but you have to test with the gfci test button because they're only tripping on current difference, not like a breaker.

[mindslight]

Yeah, IIRC the "proper" way to upgrade an ungrounded circuit to have a 3-prong outlet (without running new cabling) is to use a GFCI and label it "NO EQUIPMENT GROUND". This is considered safe, but is still ultimately a hack.

It assumes that any dangerous shocking current will be taking a path that isn't just coming back on its own white wire, presumably from taking an unspecified path to ground. This seems a reasonable assumption for safety (and the NFPA surely has looked at the data), but it doesn't really inform the above isolated-bathtub situation.