[kenshaw]

I disagree, and history does not show this to be true. We have been more fickle when it comes to instant messengers than almost any other technology on the face of the planet (pun intended). From IRC, ICQ, AIM, Facebook messages on the website (not Messenger), WhatsApp, Telegram. I count 6 major shifts in the last 19 years. This would indicate that the over/under lifespan of a messenger is roughly 3.5 years.

All it takes is a usable interface, general availability, and a reason to change. If WhatsApp starts doing content moderation, of any form on the client, I am of the strong opinion that users will find this to be "creepy" and will immediately start shifting. As it is, all of my technical contacts have already left WhatsApp for Telegram. Since that group/audience has been the bellwether for all of the previous instant messaging client shifts over the last 2 decades, I imagine it's only time before "everyone else" also shifts off WhatsApp. I don't necessarily think it will be Telegram, but they definitely have the most momentum today when compared to, eg, Line, Zalo, Viber, Kik, et al.