[mindslight]

I don't know when I personally could claim to "know". It's more like reading rumors, looking at the motives of the parties, and accepting it as the most prudent understanding. Klein/641A was low level and so the major confirmation to technical people - we can extrapolate general implications from the fundamental setup. Binney addressed a higher level but was too early to be appreciated at large.

> "that can't possibly be happening" ... "of course that's happening, I knew it all along, no big deal"

At first glance these appear to be opposed, but they are actually both just cognitive dissonance modulo different unignorable facts.

> one of my friends came to me and was big enough to say "you were right".

This is called taking responsibility. The hurdle wasn't even the admitting you were right, but rather themselves coming to terms with the implications.