[jeddawson]

It really depends on the region since landfill rates vary wildly. In California: most likely yes since landfilling is relatively expensive, but again depends.

Waste haulers have always had a non-zero expense for recycling even when the processed materials had strong values. This is because the recycling has to be collected, transported, sorted/processed, then shipped again. Depending on the local market, regulations, incentives/subsidies, and distances involved for shipping it can very easily end up that a negative commodity price tips the scales in favor of landfilling.

Also, it's worth noting that some portion of the recycling stream will end up in a landfill regardless of the commodity price because it's contaminated (or just not a recyclable material) which has an impact on the overall cost per ton of recycling. Commodity prices going negative just push this to include more of the stream since it means only the "best" materials are economically viable for further processing and shipping. It's a balancing act that the industry has been doing internally for a long time, but now it's becoming a serious issue since large amounts of the recycling stream need to be landfilled if we don't want to spend a whole lot more than we already do on solid waste.