[majia]

This is mostly rhetoric and political posturing. Chinese government has so far refrained from taking any action. Beijing is not an benevolent actor, but is smart enough to leave Hong Kong people alone and let Hong Kong people see for themselves what a HK version of Arab Spring/Orange Revolution can deliver. If the protests lead HK to a state of chaos and recession, Beijing will gain more leverage.

[JumpCrisscross]

> Beijing is not an benevolent actor, but is smart enough to leave Hong Kong people alone

Nothing Xi has done in the past year with Hong Kong has been smart. It’s short termed decision making, optimised for his political survival over the country’s long-term interests.

When dictators’ economies slow, they tend to pick from one of two handbooks: scapegoating a minority or launching pointless wars.

[cdmckay]

What has Xi done that you feel is in short-term interests?

[JumpCrisscross]

> What has Xi done that you feel is in short-term interests?

Most Hong Kongers, until recently, identified as Chinese moreso than Hong Konger. The transition in 2047 would have been uneventful.

Now, Hong Kong is pissed off. Taiwan has seen the writing on the wall. China’s multi-decade integration strategy must be rethought because Xi didn’t think he could survive Hong Kongers criticising his leadership.

[pas]

Can we see the popularity graphs for the pro-Beijing party plummet in Taiwan?

[jhanschoo]

What quickly comes to mind is the removal of term limits (detriment to China, favorable to Xi). There are lots of things that China has done since Xi that are bad for foreign diplomacy that makes neighbors nervous, which seems like a detriment in the long run, though it's hard to say. Some examples: (more hostile climate to foreign businesses, claiming the south china sea, cyberespionage, oppression in xinjiang)

[discordance]

Also Keep in mind what the Chinese gov is capable of, notably that there are up to a million or more Uighers in 're-education' camps at the moment [0].

0: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-45474279

[majia]

If this happens in HK, everything is on the table for Beijing.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2009_Ürümqi_riots