| You're partially right (because AGI really looks like VERY far away for the current status in theory publicly known), but it's not exactly like "magical thinking". There are several public examples of radically more advanced theory/technology than the publicly known possible at a certain time/year, kept secret by governments / corps for a very long time (decades). Lockheed achieved the blackbird decades before it was even admitted that a technology like that could even exist. But, looking backwards, it just looks like an "incremental" advance, but it wasn't, the engineering required to make fly the blackbird was revolutionary for the time when it was invented (back in the 50s / 60s ). The Lockheed F-117 and its tech had a similar path, just somewhat admitted in late 80s (and this was 70s technology, probably based on theoretical concepts from the 60s). More or less the same could be said about the tech in Blechtley Park: current tech / theory propelled to extraordinary capabilities by radical improvement achieved by new top secret advances in engineering. The hardware, events and advances ocurred in Bletchley Park were kept secret for years (I think just in the 50s they started to be carefully mentioned but not fully admitted, but nothing even close to the details currently found in the Wikipedia). At any given time there could be a lot of theory/technology jump-aheads being achieved out there, several decades ahead of the publicly published/known, supposedly current, theory/technology. |