| Prove me wrong if it is so obvious. As the people at OpenAI have rightly said, AGI is a compute-gated problem. It is a problem that can only be solved with very, very large amounts of compute. The world has some total amount of computing power in terms of silicon based computation. For AGI to happen, there are two requirements: that this total be equal or greater than some theoretical threshold value for AGI and that the computing power is consolidated. So in layman’s terms, you have to have a lot of computers and they have to be connected in such a way as to efficiently share their compute. AGI will never come about if every individual computer were used to do research by separate entities but if all of those computers were connected into a single virtual computer, AGI might be discovered with them. So clearly in order to prevent AGI, the best thing to do would be to address these two aspects. Prevent the total computing power of the world from growing and prevent computers from forming virtual meta-computers. Both of these tasks are in principle extremely easy. Chip fabs are huge and expensive. Nobody is fabricating chips in their garage. This is just a hard fact. There aren’t that many fabs in the world and they are all highly susceptible to regulation. This isn’t prohibition of alcohol so please don’t confuse yourself. Nobody will be brewing chips in their cellar. Let’s imagine that you could not regulate cloud computing. Let’s say the only way to prevent computers from offering their compute on a virtual market was to shut down the internet. This by default is the hardest way to solve the second aspect of the AGI problem and even it is very easy. This is because the internet is a large fragile collection of infrastructure that depends heavily on government cooperation. Nobody is going to string a fiber backbone for black market internet. ISPs cannot exist without regulatory approval. If there were political awareness and motivation, and it was a global phenomenon, yes, it would be extremely easy to do what I’ve described. And since AGI is to the detriment of literally all people, it is not a far fetched scenario. And unlike alcohol in the United States, bootlegging would not be a problem. People in the USA think that banning anything whatsoever doesn’t work. It’s just fuzzy thinking, I can assure you. |
If there are N governments in the world, and they all agree to not regulate to not create general AI, then it's strongly in all of their interests to betray the others, create general AI, and capture the economic growth.
Even if general AI is impossible, it's in their interests to develop huge computing capacity, because that's demonstrably economically useful.
You are hypothesizing that's it's easy to get 7 billion people to all agree to co-operate in a game of prisoner's dilemma, when if a small fraction of them choose to betray, they have the potential to capture massive value.
And you want to do this under the premise that AGI might be a problem.