[TBurette]

A while ago I wrote a similar interactive article to prove that the martingale betting technique at the roulette doesn't work : [1]. The martingale is when you bet 1, double the bet each time you lose, start again at 1 when you win.

The aim was to create a single page anybody could link to that proves without a doubt the abysmal odds of making money off the roulette with the martingale technique. Instead of pre-written probabilities, charts and 'obscure complicated math' that people could easily dismiss. I wanted to give people the ability to run simulations of playing at the casino in the browser. The idea being that people would end up building the probabilities/charts themselves through simulations.

It is running Monte Carlo simulations inside the webpage and outputs the result as charts dynamically using js and D3. What it does is it repeatedly simulates going to a casino with a certain starting amount of money and an objective of how much you want to win. It then plays the roulette using the martingale technique until you got your target winnings or you lost your money.

Unfortunately I don't think I wrote the article really well and the 'generate yourself the charts proving it doesn't work' doesn't come across really well. I should have put a 'run' button instead of needing a page refresh for a start.

[1] http://thomasburette.com/martingale/

[mongol]

Theoretically I learned it works, but only if you have unlimited funds.

[rocqua]

Thing is, at any limited amount of funds it doesn't work. It's not like it works better as you get more funds. It just gets more volatile.

[skizm]

Doesn't even work with unlimited funds since casinos have table limits.

[dorgo]

Wait, what could you win if you already have unlimited funds?

[mongol]

1 dollar, an unlimited number of times.

[crispyporkbites]

An unlimited number

[TremendousJudge]

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

[eric_h]

All of that is completely invalidated by that one time I hit 13 on the roulette table at two different casinos and quit gambling up $1500 ;)

[tapland]

Just a few varied anecdotes from working as a dealer and croupier for a few years:

I once saw 13 be hit 4 times in a row (and once more within my 45 min rotation at the nearby table). Don't think I've personally seen any other 4 number streaks.

A lof of people won a lot of money during the two last ones.

I've only played a few slot games online and visited a real casino as a guest once, where I bought chips for $150 and left with $5400. The goal was losing it all and at the end I was putting $1500 on the table at a time, and dipped below $500 just a few minutes before making the $5400 and leaving.

One of the best nights I had while working was a regular from the poker room coming to my Black Jack table trying to win back the $15k he was down. Had the 'chef' (senior position at the casino floor, poker equivalent would be 'brush') there talking to him since he wasn't doing well. He managed to win it back which was a great relief.

[ptah]

at first glance it is the exact opposite of using Kelly criterion